Latest mock draft, based on final stats

Just to spice things up a bit, our newest I-75 Strat-O-Matic League Mock Draft rankings are accompanied by two separate evaluations, based on scales of 1-10. They are: 2010 I-75 League value, and future value. Then of course there's the familiar "Last month's rank." A reminder that these picks are not yet matched up to particular teams, as we'll wait for the Hot Stove league dust to settle for that. This is our assessment of the 12 most valuable players available for the 2010 draft. If you want to compare lists, here's how we ranked them on Sept. 1.

1. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles. A big wait-and-see with regard to how Strat evaluates his defense out of the gate (some thoughts posted here). He was about league-average in catching baserunners, but he did nail almost 40% of potential basestealers in 2008 in the minors. This article says ESPN's Keith Law compares him offensively to Mark Teixeira and defensively to Joe Mauer. DriveLineMechanics evaluated all 2009 catchers defensively and slotted Wieters 17th. Let's guess he'll be a 3 (+1) e10 or 3 (+2) e10. His .804 OPS vs. righties and 354 ABs plus tremendous upside give us no qualms about leaving the 23-year-old in the No. 1 slot. 2010 value: 8. Future value: 10. Last month rank: 1.

2. Ben Zobrist, OF-IF, Rays. Scored 91 runs, drove in 91 runs and walked 91 times. Bet that's never happened before in major league history. To a guy whose last name starts with Z. And has a kid named Zion. Switch-hitter who hits both ways. Hits for average (.297) and power (27 homers) against both righties and lefties. Stole 17 bases. Plays seven positions and made just seven total errors. Wish he were unlimited, but with a .405 on-base average it may not matter. The question is, having done this in his first full-time year, what can be expected in real-life 2010? Here's a roundup of articles on Zobrist covering everything from his 2009 MVP qualifications (here too) to how much of a falloff can be expected in 2010. Best article on how he got so good so fast, and his chances of even improving, is here. Best thing in his favor: A history of great plate discipline, even in the minors. For those of you who fawn over high OB numbers, trade up to the No. 2 spot. 2010 value: 9.5. Future value: 8.5. LMR: 3.

3. Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals. Take away his 2007 and 2008 seasons of negligible stats, and Carpenter has a three-year streak of WHIPs of 1.06, 1.07 and 1.01, and a three-year streak of opponent's batting averages of .231, .235 and .226. While he's coming off a career year, he also is a graduate of the Tommy John Surgery Club for Men. He's undoubtedly the best starter available in the 2010 draft, but you'd better be prepared at his age (34) for the possibility of him being unretainable after the season. 2010 value: 10. Future value: 7.5. LMR: 2.

4. Chone Figgins, 3B, Angels. His value is his on-base ability, particularly against righties (.428) and his speed (42 stolen bases). He's not the six-position wild-card he once was; and he'll hit for very little power, despite coming close to his career high in extra-base hits. Drops off substantially against lefties. But if you need a leadoff guy for one season, and a decent third baseman to boot, you can't do any better than this. 2010 value: 9. Future value: 8. LMR: 5.

5. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates. Came back to earth in September with just one homer, after eight in August. But an .836 OPS for a rookie in 433 ABs with 10 outfield assists and 22 stolen bases ain't half bad. Regarded as a five-tool player; how many of those come along? 2010 value: 8. Future value: 9. LMR: 6.

6. Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves. Hanson experienced some wildness in the first half of the year -- 20 walks in 41 innings -- but really settled down in the second half -- 26 walks in 86 innings. A very good sign. Plus, he strikes out nearly a guy an inning. Not very well balanced; stack your lineup with lefties against him in 2010 and he may only come out as a .500 pitcher. But at 6-foot-6 and 23 years of age, his value is mostly in his potential. Mull this over: One blogger suggests the Braves make him their closer. 2010 value: 7.5 Future value: 8.5. LMR: 7.

7. Andrew Bailey, RP, A's. A sub-1.00 WHIP and a sub-.200 batting-average-against? Versus both lefties and righties? Are you kidding me? 91 strikeouts in 83 innings? This is Mariano Rivera-like quality with another 10-to-15 innings thrown in. He's only 25; just bear in mind that closers can be fickle (see Brad Ziegler); they're always a couple of bad outings away from banishment to middle relief. 2010 value: 8.5. Future value: 7.5. LMR: 9.

8. Garrett Jones, OF/1B, Pirates. What a beast this guy will be if you just play him against rights. Average: .333. OBA: .426. Slug: .620. That's an OB+slug of 1.046. Comes with 314 at-bats. He's 28 years old. Inability to hit lefties diminishes his value. 2010 value: 8. Future value: 7.5. LMR: 12.

9. Chris Coghlan, LF, Marlins. Lefty-swinging 24-year-old ended up with 504 ABs for Florida and a dynamic .390 on-base average (.385 vs. LHPs, .391 vs. RHPs). Stroked 31 doubles, but considered below average defensively. CBS Sports likes him for NL Rookie of the Year, noting that he became the first rookie to lead the NL in hits after the all-star break. 2010 value: 8. Future value: 7.5. LMR: NR.

10. J.A. Happ, SP, Phillies. The 6-foot-6 rookie lefty was battered in September and lost his spot in the rotation going into the postseason. His numbers against right-handed batters swelled too, diminishing his 2010 value. With righties now hitting .244 off him, his spot in our top 12 has become endangered. This analyst thinks Happ is due for a "rude awakening" in 2010 (Question 6), citing among other things, his "unsustainable strand rate." 2010 value: 7. Future value: 8. LMR: 8.

11. David Price, SP, Rays. His numbers from Aug. 1 through the end of the season reflect the David Price that everyone was excited about following his 2008 postseason performance. A post-All-Star Game WHIP of 1.20 and an OBA of .241 show that he is heading in the right direction. Analysis of that here. Overall card for 2010 is still of questionable value; limited fifth starter at best. 2010 value: 5. Future value: 9.5. LMR: 4.

12. Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays. Really, this 12th spot comes down to which Blue Jays infielder you like best, Hill or Marco Scutaro. Like power (36 homers for Hill), or on-base (Scutaro's OBA numbers are .389 vs. LHPs, .376 vs. RHPs)? Youth or experience? Hill is 27, Scutaro is already 34. Hill is better defensively; Scutaro will steal more bases. It's a tough call, but that's why we're here. Hill. Ask us again next month. 2010 value: 7.5. Future value: 7. LMR: NR.

Dropped from rankings: Joel Pineiro (10), Marco Scutaro (12).

Can we pick 'em or what? Last month's rankings so good, little change this month

Time for our monthly analysis of the top 12 players available in the March 2010 I-75 league draft. We last looked at the draft on Aug. 1; stats in the blurbs below are through August games. Remarkably, just about everyone in last month's rankings had a strong month, leading to little change in the mock draft.

1. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore. At age 23, Wieters' combination of future superstardom, and current respectability against RHPs with a projected 300+ AB total, makes us stick with him at No. 1. Last month rank: 1.

2. Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis. 34-year-old refuses to fade; keeping his WHIP below 1 (0.97) and solid against both LHBs and RHBs. LMR: 3.

3. Ben Zobrist, OF-IF, Rays. Love this guy. Switch-hitter, great OB each way, plays six positions, just six errors, 23 HRs, 15 SBs... Can't say a bad thing about him. Only drops to 3 because great starting pitchers are such a rare commodity. LMR: 2.

4. David Price, SP, Rays. Had dropped his WHIP from 1.63 to 1.47 in the last 30 days; at this pace he'll actually be useable in 2010 instead of just a prospect pick. Had a 1.15 WHIP and .238 opponents batting average against in August. LMR: 4.

5. Chone Figgins, 3B, Angels. There's prattle about Figgins and Erick Aybar winning Gold Gloves for their defense on Anaheim's left side of the infield. Don't know about that, but his .431 on-base number against righties and 39 steals makes him an attractive pick. LMR: 5.

6. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates. Love this guy too. Had his best month of the year in August, with 8 homers, .304/.387/.618. Great speed and throwing arm. Being skewed against lefties is the only reason he doesn't move up ahead of Figgins. LMR: 6.

7. Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves. Another guy who had a strong August to improve his stock, but can't bump him up this list. WHIP is down to 1.25; opponent batting average to .239. Might be a 6R in his first year though; dominates righties and is merely mortal against lefties. But having just turned 23, he could be a Greg Maddux-type workhorse for years to come. LMR: 7.

8. J.A. Happ, SP, Phillies. Ever notice that announcers seem to call him "Jay" instead of "Jay-A Happ?" Weird. Anyway, Happ was a model of consistency in August, with a 1.19 WHIP and .221 opponents' batting average, to leave his 2009 totals at 1.17 and .226. A big lefty who will turn 27 in October, he has good balance and a lot of innings (143). He's consistent and so should we be. LMR: 8.

9. Andrew Bailey, RP, A's. Bailey had a great August, trimming his WHIP to 0.92 and his batting average against to .173. He's gonna have a Mariano-Rivera-like card with 76 Ks in 72 innings. Amazingly brutal vs. both righties and lefties. Just 25 years old. He'll likely finish in the mid-80s in innings; how often can you get a closer like that these days? LMR: 10.

10. Joel Pineiro, SP, Cardinals. With reservation. Only because surely someone else will need a right-handed starter, and at this point, the veteran appears to be the best of the lot. His WHIP is nice at 1.10, but those are mostly hits and not walks, as reflected by a .263 BAA. Does a good job of keeping the ball in the yard and already has 170 innings. LMR: Not ranked.

11. Marco Scutaro, SS, Blue Jays. Like his set-him-and-forget-him potential. Full-time player with great OB who will be unlimited and won't hurt you in the field. Can be a great No. 1 or No. 2 hitter. LMR: 9.

12. Garrett Jones, OF, Pirates. Has cooled off just a smidge, but still boasts a 1.065 OPS against RHPs and has more than 200 ABs under his belt. LMR: 12.

Dropped from rankings: David Aardsma (11).

Jockeying in I-75 League standings as gap expands in North, tightens in South

120-game standings

Bushwood re-establishes command in North, and suddenly there's a race for the third playoff spot in the same division... Bismarck falls 21 games out -- of fifth... Margaritaville poses new threat to Savannah in South.

Northbound	W	L	Pct.	GB
Bushwood	77	43	.642	--
Superior	70	50	.583	7
Hickory	65	55	.541	12
Tropical	63	57	.525	14
Springfield	57	63	.475	20
Bismarck	36	84	.300	41
Southbound	W	L	Pct.	GB
Savannah	71	49	.592	--
Margaritaville	68	52	.567	3
Detroit	61	59	.508	10
Applegate	57	63	.475	14
Wisconsin	49	71	.408	22
S. Grand Prairie	46	74	.383	25

August results

Outcomes of August series in the I-75 Strat-O-Matic league as reported by e-mail or otherwise surreptitiously derived (100-game standings here):

Northbound

BG (15-5): 3-2 vs. HN, 3-2 vs. TH; 4-1 at SW, 5-0 at BB
HN (6-14): 2-3 vs. MV, 1-4 vs. SI; 2-3 at BG, 1-4 at ST
ST (11-9): 2-3 vs. SS, 4-1 vs. HN; 4-1 at BB, 1-4 at TH
TH (10-10): 3-2 vs. SI, 4-1 vs. ST; 1-4 at AP, 2-3 at BG
SI (14-6): 3-2 vs. DD, 5-0 vs. BB; 2-3 at TH, 4-1 at HN
BB (2-18): 1-4 vs. ST, 0-5 vs. BG; 1-4 at WW, 0-5 at SI

Southbound

SS (10-10): 3-2 vs. SW, 0-5 vs. MV; 3-2 at ST, 4-1 at WW
MV (15-5): 4-1 vs. AP, 3-2 vs. DD; 3-2 at HN, 5-0 at SS
DD (12-8): 4-1 vs. WW, 4-1 vs. SW; 2-3 at SI, 2-3 at MV
AP (10-10): 4-1 vs. TH; 3-2 vs. WW; 1-4 at MV, 2-3 at SW
WW (8-12): 4-1 vs. BB, 1-4 vs. SS; 1-4 at DD, 2-3 at AP
SW (7-13): 1-4 vs. BG, 3-2 vs. AP; 2-3 at SS, 1-4 at DD

Prospects dominating newest installment of 2010 mock draft

Time to take another crack at a mock draft for the 2010 I-75 Strat-O-Matic League season, our 31st. Each of our 12 teams protects 18 players from the 2009 season. Every other player with a card is eligible to be drafted. We last looked at the mock draft after June games. Stats below are complete through July.

1. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore. Wieters started slow but had a hot July, hitting .323 to boost his overall numbers to .279/.325/.395 -- which aren't going to blow anyone away, but he still has that can't-miss prospect tag that would make it silly to pass him by. The switch-hitter also has splits that favor his time against righties (.836/.574 OPS). One caution -- he may debut with a +3 arm, has he has caught just 8 of 39 basestealers in his first 41 games. Last month rank: 1.

2. Ben Zobrist, OF-IF, Rays. Zobrist just continues to hit, and his overall offensive card is going to be so much better than anybody else's at this rate, that he can't go any lower than 2. Sporting a .303/.410/.577 record, Zobrist is a switch-hitter who clobbers both righties and lefties (1.113/.921). He's also got a power-speed blend (18 HRs and 12 SBs), and plays six positions with a total of just two errors all year. LMR: 3.

3. Chris Carpenter, RHP, Cardinals. Even though he's 34, anyone who's in it to win it in 2010 and needs a starting pitcher will find Carpenter the runaway best option at this rate. He'll have a nice balanced card, has an overall WHIP below 1 (0.96) and opponents are hitting just .220 off him. LMR: 4.

4. David Price, LHP, Rays. He's just not pitching that well this year, with a 1.63 WHIP and .265 OBA, but if you think you're not really going to contend in 2010, he's a pretty safe gamble to be your future ace. LMR: 2.

5. Chone Figgins, 3B, Angels. It's hard to keep this guy off the list any longer when he's reaching base at a .393 clip overall and .424 against righties. Figgins is hitting .311 with 31 stolen bases. His defense may be a bit shaky, but he also qualifies at 2B and LF. The switch-hitter can be somebody's valuable leadoff man for 160 games. LMR: Not ranked.

6. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates. Speaking of leadoff men... McCutchen is regarded as one of the game's top prospects and is off to an impressive start. A five-tool player, McCutchen sports numbers of .281/.339/.438. He has nine stolen bases, and doubled his homer output from 3 to 6 Saturday night with three bombs against the Nationals. He also has 6 outfield assists in 50 games, which projects to 18 or more over a full season, so expect something like a 2(-3)e7 rating in CF. A first-round pick, just 23. LMR: 7.

7. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Braves. An ace down the road, and middle-of-rotation guy for 2010 with a 1.33 WHIP and .241 BAA. Just 23. LMR: 8.

8. J.A. Happ, LHP, Phillies. Young lefty (27) represents the best remaining combination of future potential and 2010 usefulness, with a 1.16 WHIP and .228 BAA. LMR: 10.

9. Marco Scutaro, SS, Blue Jays. Pretty serviceable guy having a great year, with numbers of .297/.389/.439, 32 doubles (third in the AL) and just 3 errors at shortstop. He has an .800+ OPS each way. Having a career year at 34, good upgrade for several pennant contenders. LMR: Not ranked.

10. Andrew Bailey, RHP, A's. Bailey isn't high on the list in saves (14) but he is the team's closer and a great one at that, with a 1.02 WHIP and BAA of .183. Even nicer is his high innings count, 61, and strikeout ability (69). Just 25 years old. LMR: 11.

11. David Aardsma, RHP, Mariners. Aardsma is still having a great year -- 1.11 WHIP, .163 BAA, 25 saves, 58 K in 49 IP. We just had him listed too high last month, and think the innings and age differences (Aardsma is 28) warrant Bailey being taken higher. LMR: 6.

12. Garrett Jones, OF, Pirates. This guy is off to a ridiculous start. Earning a promotion after the trade of Nyjer Morgan, Jones is hitting .310/.361/.700 in his first 100 at-bats. He has OPS values of .942/1.133 with 10 HRs. That's absurd, and even if he finishes with just 280 at-bats, if he continues to play at anywhere near this pace, someone will snag the 28-year-old in the first round as the best part-time player in the draft. LMR: Not ranked.

Dropped from rankings: Kevin Millwood (5), Rick Porcello (9), Zack Duke (12).

Deadline deals

I-75 league trades consummated Friday:

Bismarck sends Cory Wade and Micah Hoffpauir to Margaritaville for Chris Dickerson and Octavio Dotel.

Wisconsin sends Andre Ethier, Steven Pearce and Jonathan Broxton to Superior for Matt Holliday and Martin Prado.

Wisconsin sends Adrian Gonzalez, Andrew Miller, Carlos Zambrano and Adam Wainwright to Bismarck for Ryan Braun, Jair Jurrgens, Aaron Cook and Sean Marshall.

Springfield sends Cliff Lee, Joakim Soria and Xavier Nady to Margaritaville for Adam Jones, Clayton Kershaw and Jose Valverde.

Savannah opens up 8-game lead; Bushwood vaults into first

100-game standings

Northbound	W	L	Pct.	GB
Bushwood	62	38	.620	--
Hickory	59	41	.590	3
Superior	59	41	.590	3
Tropical	53	47	.530	9
Springfield	43	57	.430	19
Bismarck	34	66	.340	28
Southbound	W	L	Pct.	GB
Savannah	61	39	.610	--
Margaritaville	53	47	.530	8
Detroit	49	51	.490	12
Applegate	47	53	.470	14
Wisconsin	41	59	.410	20
S. Grand Prairie	39	61	.390	22