Another updated mock draft for 2009
(Updated Nov. 30 with new No. 12 pick after Bobby Abreu revelation.)
Once again, we take a look at the 12 players most deserving of being drafted in the first round of the 2009 I-75 League Draft. The players are listed in order of value and no consideration is being given at this point to the particular team that holds that spot in the drafting order, since those spots are likely to shift between now and March. Number in parentheses was the player's previous ranking on this list, when stats were through late July.
1. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay, age 23 (1): Longoria did nothing to change anyone's mind about where he should be chosen, winning Rookie of the Year and hitting 27 homers in 448 at-bats. Slugs over .500 vs. both LHPs and RHPs, went into the season widely regarded as baseball's best prospect.
2. Carlos Quentin, LF, Chicago White Sox, age 26 (2): 36 homers in 480 at-bats and ridiculous on-base numbers both ways.
3. Nate McLouth, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates, age 27 (6): Finished strong to climb three spots since July. 76 extra-base hits and 23 stolen bases, .908 OPS vs. RHPs and the lefty hitter improved enough that he can hang in there vs. LHPs.
4. Ricky Nolasco, SP, Florida Marlins, age 26 (NR): Who, you say? The top available starting pitcher isn't as clearcut this year as it was the last two (Carmona, Mussina). And although the league has been burned badly by choosing Marlins starters in the first round, Nolasco offers youth, a balanced card (1.13 WHIP vs. LHBs, 1.07 vs. RHBs), and 200+ innings. Not even on our radar through July, he posted WHIPs of 0.84 and 0.95 in August and September.
5. Aubrey Huff, DH/1B/3B, Baltimore Orioles, age 32 (7): 72 extra-base hits, the league's only available .600 slugging average vs. RHPs, and a .989 OBS vs. righties is enough to overlook the fact that the lefty slugger isn't much help in the field.
6. Shin-Soo Choo, RF/LF, Cleveland Indians, age 26 (NR): We may have to rely on Jamie's insider information to tell us whether Choo is considered a legit star in the making or not, but we can tell you that the left-handed hitter will do some damage in his 317 at-bats, with a .413 on-base number and .579 slugging number against righties.
7. Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds, age 22 (10): You can find better cards, but this guy has a lot of promise, and meanwhile you can milk his contributions against righties, where he'll give you a .340 on-base percentage and a .529 slugging percentage.
8. Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs, age 31 (4): Faded a bit and gives up more to lefties than we'd like for a first-round starting pitcher, but 206 innings is a valuable commodity.
9. Justin Duchscherer, SP, Oakland A's, age 31 (3): Has the best numbers of any available right-handed starter (1.11 WHIP vs. LHBs, 0.85 vs. RHBs); he slips this low mostly because of his innings limitation (141) and at 31 he's beyond his prime.
10. Carlos Delgado, 1B, N.Y. Mets, age 36 (NR): Negatives: Age, fielding liability, might not be able to play him vs. lefties. Positives: Unlimited, .378 OB and .534 slug vs. RHPs.
11. Grant Balfour, RP, Tampa Bay Rays, age 31 (NR): Best available relief card. Hope you've got a closer you can retain because they are weak this year. Balfour had four saves so he should have limited closing ability. Only 58 innings is another drawback. But lefties hit just .120 off him, and righties .159.
12. David Bush, SP, Milwaukee, age 29 (NR): Not a high degree of confidence in this pick, but gotta figure the biggest need for most drafters will be starting pitching, and the top-shelf pickings have already gotten slim. Bush is strong against rights, not bad against lefties, gives up more homers than we'd like, but the other top options have drawbacks too.
No longer ranked as first-rounders: Gavin Floyd (5), Kosuke Fukudome (8), Edinson Volquez (9), Brendan Morrow (11) and Kerry Wood (12).
posted by Gary @ 11/29/2008 12:20:00 AM
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